Pakistan has returned as a significant buyer of Canadian canola after regulatory changes had largely closed that market for several years. The renewed trade adds a useful outlet at a time when Canada is preparing to handle another very large crop while directing more seed into domestic crushing.
Pakistan is buying Canadian canola again
Pakistan purchased 506,656 tonnes of Canadian canola during the first six months of 2026, according to figures reported by Farmtario. That compares with 165,128 tonnes in all of 2025 and no purchases in 2023 or 2024.
The country now ranks as Canada’s fifth-largest canola customer this year, behind China, the European Union, Japan and Mexico. Access had been constrained while Pakistan revised its import requirements for genetically modified crops. The regulatory framework was updated in late 2025, and Canada and Pakistan signed a new phytosanitary protocol in July 2026.
The reopened market matters because Pakistan can absorb meaningful volumes. Its purchases have varied considerably in the past, reaching 1.35 million tonnes in 2016. Restoring predictable access does not guarantee trade at that level, but it gives Canadian exporters another substantial destination and reduces their dependence on a smaller group of buyers.
From my perspective, this is very good news for Canadian agriculture. Canadian canola is not currently facing tariffs, but I still think diversifying our export markets is necessary. The more buyers we have, the less exposed the sector is to a sudden change in trade policy or access in any one market.
A large crop will meet stronger domestic processing
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts 2026 canola production at 21.6 million tonnes, the second-largest crop on record and 15 per cent above the five-year average. Total supply is projected at 23.46 million tonnes.
The department expects domestic crush to reach a record 13.7 million tonnes as processing capacity expands. Exports are forecast at 8 million tonnes, down 12 per cent from 2025-26 because more seed is expected to remain in Canada for processing. Despite the large supply, ending stocks are projected to fall 13 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes, notably below the five-year average.
Pakistan’s return therefore arrives at a useful moment. It provides another market for a large crop, while rising domestic crush keeps the overall balance from becoming burdensome. The durability of this trade will depend on predictable access, competitive prices and Pakistan’s willingness to keep buying beyond the current year.
Sources: Farmtario; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
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